Ohio (+3.5) at Florida Atlantic: Only about 10% of the public is taking the Ohio Bobcats in this one. Purdue (+2.5) at Virginia Tech: The Boilermakers lost at home to Fresno State and now only 22% are picking them as a slight road dog against Virginia Tech. Only 14% are picking the Cornhuskers in this one. Nebraska (+2.5) at Colorado: The public is all aboard the Deion Sanders train in Colorado after last week’s upset of TCU. In weekly contests, all or some of these upset plays may be good leverage opportunities: UTEP (-2) at Northwestern: The line in this one has moved from UTEP being a dog to being favored against a Northwestern team in disarray, but the public is evenly split here, offering slight value. Marshall (-3) at East Carolina: The Thundering Herd are a field goal favorite but only about a third of all entries are picking them this week. Obviously, this points to issues with our educational system, as most of these people are unaware that James Madison has a Virginia Plan. James Madison (-6.5) at Virginia: Only 19% of the public is picking James Madison in this one, even though they are nearly a touchdown favorite. There are two massive ones as the betting favorite is being picked like a big underdog in a couple of contests. We always have some fluctuation because of different contest lines, but here are games where most of you are getting one side, usually the underdog (we list the current consensus line, which is not what everyone has):Īs we head toward Week 2 in college football, here are some of the value plays we are seeing. You’ll see a little more overlap between our season-long and weekly pick sets this week, because a lot of our top model leans are also very unpopular with the public. In weekly prize sets, Cleveland and the Jets are likely getting moved up to higher point amounts as key leverage plays on unpopular underdogs with reasonably high win odds approaching 50%. In confidence point pools, Atlanta is a pretty important one across all formats, as they are likely getting pushed a little bit up the board because (a) our models are favoring them, and (b) they are in a range where there are a lot of teams with similar win odds. Pittsburgh and New England are two more home underdogs showing up frequently in weekly pick sets, while Tennessee is in about half of them. Weekly Game Winnerįor weekly prize contests, Cleveland and the New York Jets are two high leverage outcomes, with over 90% of our Top Option recommendations being on those two slight home underdogs in division games. In addition, Chicago over Green Bay is a pretty high leverage game, as the Bears are the shortest favorite but our models are leaning to Chicago and our season-long picks have that as a toss-up type game where we are heavy on the Bears. These include Atlanta over Carolina, LA Chargers over Miami, Denver over Las Vegas, Jacksonville over Indianapolis, and Seattle over LA Rams. Several of them are pretty universal as both the season-long pick and the pick in the top option pick sets for weekly. Here are some of the key games we are seeing across various types of pools:Ī lot of the shorter to moderate favorites are pretty key in Week 1 in Game Winners, as we lean into the team with higher win odds. Get an edge in your PGA golf pool! Free access until February 11. 8/10: Early Spreads and Matchups for Week 1.8/25: Washington Looking Like an Early Value as Heavy Favorite.8/30: Cleveland and New England Look Like Early Upset Values. 9/5: Kelce Injury News Pushes Detroit to a Value Gamble Option.9/6: Washington and Baltimore Lead in ATS Popularity.9/7: Chiefs and Lions Open Season Tonight.We plan to periodically update this post through Sunday of Week 1, so check back for updates. We also provide some of the rationale behind picks potentially recommended by our premium product. In these columns, we explore strategies to maximize your edge in NFL and college football pick’em contests. We have launched our Football Pick’em Picks product for 2023, along with our initial pick’em contest strategy and advice column for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. The Vikings are one of the bigger Week 1 favorites against the Bucs post-Tom Brady (Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)
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